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The Real Cost of the School Bond

Measure 2-379 asks Florence taxpayers for a $139 million principal bond. When accounting for interest over 30 years, the total cost to our community may exceed $250 million. This represents a massive expansion of public debt during a time of significant economic uncertainty.

Direct Impacts on
Residents and Businesses

Homeowners

For the median Florence household income ($59,539), an additional tax burden of $783 annually is a burden that families and seniors on fixed incomes simply cannot afford.

Renters

Property tax increases are passed directly to tenants. Median renters in Florence can expect annual rent hikes of $300–$500 annually to cover this bond.

Business & Economy

School bonds in Oregon place a significant, direct property tax burden on businesses through levies on assessed value. Unlike residential homeowners, businesses often hold higher-value property, meaning they bear a higher share of the tax increase required to pay off the bond debt.

  • Vacancy Rates:

    As of 2024, Florence had a high average vacancy rate of 48.92% across all asset classes. The national average for commercial vacancy is 17-20%.

  • Economic Risk:

    Increasing the tax burden on commercial landlords will likely increase the commercial vacancy rate and drive more small businesses out of Florence while making our city less attractive for new businesses.

Educational Performance
and Facility Management

Academic Improvement vs. Building Condition

The consensus among educational researchers is that the condition of the building matters more than its age. A well-maintained 1970s school with modern HVAC, lighting, and acoustics can produce academic results similar to a newer building. The impact on test scores is almost entirely tied to the physical health and comfort of the students and teachers. Claiming the current school is “beyond repair” admits to decades of failed maintenance oversight. Taxpayers should not be the “bailout” for administrative mismanagement and neglect.

Proficiency Standards

For school year 2024-2025, the Oregon Department of Education report card shows Siuslaw High School at a 3 year low for English Language Arts proficiency at 27.9 percent, and mathematics at 21.2 percent, neither of these meet state standards.

Teacher Retention/Recruitment

Adding a tax increase via the bond to Florence teachers, who are already paid below the average in Oregon, will further decrease a teacher’s take-home pay and push homeownership even further out of reach.

Educational Performance
and Facility Management

District data shows a steady decline in student population with peak attendance of 1680 students in 1995 to 1180 students currently, a 30% decrease. Building a massive new 174,000 sq. ft. high school for a shrinking student body (376 students as of Nov/2025) is poor financial stewardship of taxpayer dollars.

Safety and Security

School shootings have occurred in buildings of varying ages, ranging from historical 19th-century structures to modern facilities. While some incidents occurred in older, renovated buildings, others happened in newly constructed schools indicating that the year of construction is generally less significant than security, behavioral, and access factors. Recent studies, such as the K-12 School Shooting Database, focus on the location of parking lots, classrooms, hallways etc. rather than the building age.

Fiscal Impact Breakdown:

Estimated Costs to
Property Owners

The proposed bond carries an estimated tax rate of $2.75 per $1,000 of assessed property value. Unlike market value, assessed value in Oregon typically grows by 3% annually, meaning the tax burden will increase over the life of the bond.

Assessed Property Value Estimated Annual Cost Estimated Monthly Cost
$200,000 $550 $45.83
$300,000 $825 $68.75
$400,000 $1,100 $91.66

The "Fixed Income Trap"

Florence has a significant population of retirees. This bond creates a unique risk for those on non-adjustable incomes:

  • Purchasing Power Erosion:

    Unlike the district budget, Social Security and fixed pensions do not automatically increase to cover new tax assessments.

  • Essential Needs Competition:

    A monthly increase of $50–$100 can force difficult choices between property taxes and essential costs like healthcare or utilities.

  • Displacement Risk:

    Increased carrying costs may force long-term residents to sell their homes despite having no mortgage.

Structural Financial Concerns

01

The "Double Payment" Effect:

Critics argue that residents are already paying taxes for facility maintenance through the general fund. This bond is viewed as a "second payment" for repairs that should have been managed through existing annual budgets.

02

30-Year Obligation:

This bond ties up the community’s credit for three decades, limiting the ability to fund other infrastructure emergencies.

03

Interest Costs:

Over 30 years, the total cost to taxpayers will far exceed the $139 million principal, with significant portions of tax revenue going to interest payments for bondholders.

Historical Context

Voters have previously rejected smaller requests ($40M in 2016 and $108M in 2018). Opponents argue that the district should return with a more modest maintenance and retrofit plan rather than a total facility replacement.

The Case Against Measure 20-379

Measure 20-379 asks Florence taxpayers for a $139 million principal bond. When accounting for interest over 30 years, the total cost to our community will exceed $250 million. This is not a "renewal"—it is a massive expansion of public debt during a time of significant economic uncertainty.

Financial Impact on the
Median (50th Percentile) Resident

For the median Florence household, this bond represents a significant extraction of private wealth. With a median household income of $59,539, a new $783 annual tax is a burden that families and seniors on fixed incomes simply cannot afford.

Metric Median Household Impact
Proposed Bond Rate $2.75 per $1,000 of Assessed Value
Annual New Tax Cost $783.75
Monthly Budget Hit $65.31
30-Year Wealth Loss $23,512 (Direct Tax Paid)
Investment Opportunity Cost $55,000
(Value if tax was saved at 5% ROI)

Academics Over Architecture: Bricks Don’t Teach

Conservative educational policy asserts that student achievement is driven by standards, not surroundings. A $139 million building will not inherently improve math or reading proficiency.

01

Misplaced Priorities:

Funding should be directed toward curricular rigor, teacher quality, and vocational training. A school building is a depreciating asset; high-performing students are the real community investment.

02

Accountability First:

The district must prove academic success within current facilities before asking for a "premium" upgrade. We should not reward stagnating test scores with a quarter-billion-dollar construction project

03

The Maintenance Cycle:

Claiming the current school is "beyond repair" admits to decades of failed maintenance oversight. Taxpayers should not be the "bailout" for administrative negligence.

Summary

  • Protect Your Home Equity:

    Excessive property taxes lower the desirability of a community for new homebuyers and small businesses.

  • Stop the 30-Year Debt Cycle:

    Don't lock Florence into a debt obligation that lasts until 2056.

  • Force a Better Plan:

    A "No" vote forces the district to return with a modest, fiscally responsible proposal that addresses essential safety repairs without bankrupting the middle class.

  • Invest in Minds, Not Mortar:

    Let’s prioritize a "back-to-basics" curriculum that ensures Florence graduates are career-ready, regardless of the building’s age.

$139 Million is Only the Beginning

The "Double Payment" Effect

Every dollar spent on bond interest is a dollar that cannot be spent on teachers, books, or specialized student programs.

Long-Term Debt

This measure locks the Florence community into a high-interest debt cycle until the year 2056.

Fixed Income Trap

If your home's assessed value increases over the next 30 years, your $68/month payment will also go up, even if your income stays the same.

When you take out a 30-year mortgage, you pay for the house plus the interest.

This school bond is no different. While the district asks for $139 Million, taxpayers will likely pay back over $250 Million once interest and bond issuance fees are

What You’re Really Paying For

  • The Bond

    A $139 million principal that grows with interest.

  • The Cost

    $68.75/month for the average family.

  • The Alternative

    Investing that same money directly into curriculum rigor and teacher retention today—without the 30 years of interest payments to big banks.

A Neutral Analysis:
Construction vs. Curriculum

Infrastructure (School Bonds)

Investing in physical facilities via bonds is generally categorized as "removing barriers to learning."

  • The Baseline Argument:

    Research consistently shows that "substandard" environments (poor ventilation, extreme temperatures, or inadequate lighting) create a physiological drag on performance. A bond measure that fixes a failing HVAC system is not necessarily "boosting" scores so much as it is stopping the environment from actively depressing them.

  • Asset Value and Stability:

    Beyond academics, bonds impact the community’s "social capital." Modern facilities can improve teacher retention, reduce absenteeism, and increase local property values, which indirectly stabilizes the tax base for future school funding.

  • Diminishing Returns:

    The data suggests a "plateau effect." Moving a student from a crumbling building to a clean, functional one yields a measurable gain. However, moving a student from a functional building to a high-tech "luxury" facility shows significantly less correlation with academic growth.

Instructional Rigor (Curriculum)

Investing in curriculum and professional development is categorized as "enhancing the quality of learning."

  • Direct Impact:

    Curriculum dictates the cognitive demand placed on a student. A rigorous curriculum (characterized by high-depth-of-knowledge tasks) has a more direct, linear relationship with test scores and college readiness.

  • Cost-Effectiveness:

    Relative to a multi-million dollar construction bond, updating a curriculum or providing teacher coaching is often less expensive in terms of capital outlay. However, it requires a higher "human cost" in terms of time, training, and consistent implementation.

  • The "Implementation Gap":

    A curriculum is only as rigorous as its delivery. While a new building "works" as soon as the doors open, a new curriculum often requires years of teacher adaptation before the full benefits are reflected in student data.

Comparative Framework

Metric School Bond / Infrastructure Rigorous Curriculum / Instruction
Primary Driver Environmental health and safety. Cognitive challenge and content mastery.
Type of Gain Passive (Environment supports focus). Active (Material increases capability).
Risk Factor High debt/interest; potential for underuse. Teacher burnout; inconsistent delivery.
Sustainability Lasts 20–30 years (physical lifecycle). Requires frequent updates to stay relevant.

Conclusion

The most balanced view held by educational economists is that infrastructure is a prerequisite, while curriculum is the engine. If a school's physical conditions are "standard" (clean, safe, and temperate), the marginal dollar spent on curriculum rigor and teacher training typically produces a higher academic return than the marginal dollar spent on further facility upgrades. Conversely, if a building is "dilapidated," even the most rigorous curriculum may fail to land because the environment prevents the necessary concentration.

Vote No on 20-379